Strength of Association between Infarct Volume and Clinical Outcome Depends on the Magnitude of Infarct Size: Results from the ESCAPE-NA1 Trial

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Infarct volume is an important predictor of clinical outcome in acute stroke. We hypothesized that the association of infarct volume and clinical outcome changes with the magnitude of infarct size.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data were derived from the Safety and Efficacy of Nerinetide in Subjects Undergoing Endovascular Thrombectomy for Stroke (ESCAPE-NA1) trial, in which patients with acute stroke with large-vessel occlusion were randomized to endovascular treatment plus either nerinetide or a placebo. Infarct volume was manually segmented on 24-hour noncontrast CT or DWI. The relationship between infarct volume and good outcome, defined as mRS 0–2 at 90 days, was plotted. Patients were categorized on the basis of visual grouping at the curve shoulders of the infarct volume/outcome plot. The relationship between infarct volume and adjusted probability of good outcome was fitted with linear or polynomial functions as appropriate in each group.

RESULTS: We included 1099 individuals in the study. Median infarct volume at 24 hours was 24.9 mL (interquartile range [IQR] = 6.6–92.2 mL). On the basis of the infarct volume/outcome plot, 4 infarct volume groups were defined (IQR = 0–15 mL, 15.1–70 mL, 70.1–200 mL, >200 mL). Proportions of good outcome in the 4 groups were 359/431 (83.3%), 219/337 (65.0%), 71/201 (35.3%), and 16/130 (12.3%), respectively. In small infarcts (IQR = 0–15 mL), no relationship with outcome was appreciated. In patients with intermediate infarct volume (IQR = 15–200 mL), there was progressive importance of volume as an outcome predictor. In infarcts of > 200 mL, outcomes were overall poor.

CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between infarct volume and clinical outcome varies nonlinearly with the magnitude of infarct size. Infarct volume was linearly associated with decreased chances of achieving good outcome in patients with moderate-to-large infarcts, but not in those with small infarcts. In very large infarcts, a near-deterministic association with poor outcome was seen.